ROOM
14
Special Report
Consider the data distribution sector where the
satellite is used to move data from one central
location to other regions of the world. Take a
communications satellite with four antennas that
allow it to distribute data to four different regions
simultaneously. Due to the dynamic nature of
end-user data distribution requests, these satellite
systems typically achieve utilisation rates of only
60 to 70 percent. An increase in the number of
antennas, without changing any other part of the
satellite, would allow use to increase.
For illustration, we assume that increasing the
number of antennas from four to eight would
increase utilisation efficiency by 10 percent. The
antennas are not assembled onto the spacecraft
prior to launch but rather are packed efficiently
into the fairing above the satellite platform. Once
in orbit, the antennas are assembled robotically
onto the satellite before transfer to GEO.
Assuming the satellite generates revenue at a
rate of US$1.5 million per transponder per year
(the recent historical average), a typical number of
36 transponders on the satellite, and a 10 percent
increase in utilisation due to the use of on-orbit
assembly to double the number of antennas from
four to eight, the total increase in revenue would
be US$5.4 million per year. Over the 15-year
lifetime of a typical satellite, this yields a total
revenue increase of US$81 million.
Another important limitation of
communications satellites fully assembled on
the ground is that once deployed on orbit, the
technological capabilities remain fixed for the
lifetime of the spacecraft. This is an important
consideration since the lifetime of most GEO
satellites is 15 years.
The ability to reconfigure a telecommunications
satellite through on-orbit re-assembly could
provide valuable capability upgrades for operators,
that may be especially important as GEO operators
begin to gear up to compete with low Earth orbit
(LEO) constellations expected to see refresh rates
as low as 18 months.
The revenue generated by a communications
satellite depends primarily on the rate at which
information can be moved through the system,
measured in bits per second. Similar to Moore’s
Law for computer processor speed, the historical
data for the evolution of satellite bit-rate shows
a predictable upward trend with no end in sight.
Specifically, the bit-rate has been seen to increase
by a factor of 10 every seven years or so.
When a new satellite is launched, in its first
year of operation it provides the fastest bit-rate
available in the market. However, each year that
passes sees new satellites placed into orbit with a
performance that exceeds that of the older asset.
Thus, a seven-year old satellite is operating at
a bit-rate that is a factor of 10 slower than the
newest satellites in operation
Now consider the situation in which on-orbit
assembly makes it possible to replace the entire
communications payload on the satellite after
seven years of operation. The new payload would
refresh the technology and instantly increase
the bit-rate of the asset. As an illustration, we
again assume the satellite generates revenue at a
rate of US$1.5 million per transponder per year,
and 36 transponders on the satellite. We will
further assume a factor of 10 increase in bit-rate
enabled by on-orbit assembly of the updated
communications payload.
However, this improved performance will
be accompanied by a reduction in customer
charge rate, and for our analysis we assume
that the charge rate decreases by a factor of
five. The cost of the second launch is assumed
to be US$40 million and that of the new
communications payload is estimated at US$100
million. Figure 4 shows the accumulation of
revenue over the operational lifetime of the
satellite under the current paradigm and for
the new approach in which the technology is
refreshed after seven years. The total revenue
The JWST aperture is approaching the size limit
for what can be accommodated within current
launch vehicle fairings
Revenue ($B)
Years after initial launch
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
5
10
15
Current
Refreshed
Figure 4. Total revenue
generated by a
communications satellite
over a 15-year lifetime.
